Simulation Is Not The Answer I figured this might be be an interesting title for an article written by someone who makes their livelihood doing modeling and simulation.
And yet, I have come to understand it is a most appropriate statement of truth. After having been involved in numerous answer to single or taken and simulation efforts, which produced far less than the desired results, the nagging question becomes; Why?
This is the question I intend to address.
As I ponder this question, what I should understand from previous activities or engagements makes me curious as to why I repeatedly fall into the same trap. A trap of my own design.
Although the trap appears different from time to time, it is in fact the same trap. The trap is one of failure by design, which seems a rather ludicrous statement. Why would anyone design a situation to fail, when failure is the thing least desired? And, even though I know this so well, it is my actions which are responsible for the failure.
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Truth hurts! Embracing the truth promotes progress. From one perspective or another I have been involved in most of the management fads of the answer to single or taken four decades, which were most aptly labeled by McGill And, the work of Senge would seem to imply that yet another one is gaining momentum.
Answer to single or taken might be appropriately labeled: Nanosecond Nineties LO Os The intent of this tirade is not to berate or belittle the developers of the foundations for these decades of fads for the basis for potential understanding they have provided is most noteworthy.
The problem lies not in the concepts associated with the basic disciplines which become fads, but in our less than astute application of the disciplines. Proponents of personal development and motivation, such as CoveyFritzGarfieldRobbinsRobbinsand many others too numerous to mention, seem to have a thread quite common with the 6 decades of fads identified above.
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All accomplishment is reduced to a formula, and if you apply the formula, you will achieve the desired results. Oh, if it could be that life were only so simpleit is not! And if it were, it would probably be most boring. And, even the formulization of a prescriptive action is not quite the heart of the problem, even though the formulas are incomplete.
The real basis for the difficulty is in fact what we believe. And it is not just one belief that is incorrect. There exists a whole set of false beliefs which contribute to our continuing failure to achieve what we set out to accomplish.
And the real annoying dimension of all this has to do with our own lack of awareness of the beliefs and the influence they have. You might refer to answer to single or taken beliefs as mental models as per Argyris and Senge or paradigms as per Kuhn A partial list of the invalid beliefs in operation would seem to be: There is a definable sequence of actions, which when taken, will produce a predefinable result.
If I have been able to take a set of actions and achieve a desired result then taking the same set of actions will again produce the same result. If a given set of actions have repeatedly produced answer to single or taken same result, then these actions will always produce the answer to single or taken results. There exists an easy foolproof answer to the current situation, all we have to do is find it.
It is crucial that the EU coordinates the critical preparedness, readiness and response actions of Member States. The Answer to single or taken must assist Member State governments to pool best practices and support those groups and people who are socially isolated, those with certain pre-existing medical conditions, the homeless, the elderly, and those, such as the Romani the largest ethinic minority of the EU who are marginalised or suffering from discrimination and inequalities in access to health care and detainees. Continued provision of personal assistance and care for persons with disabilities must be guaranteed. In particular, services for victims of violence must remain open and available. Reports on gender based violence must not be considered less important or disregarded during this time.
We essentially believe there is a panacea and it's supposed to be easy. For the most part these are simply reworded variations of a single false belief. That being, "It is possible to define the actions necessary to produce a specific result. Yet, with considerations of the writing of BatesonBertalanffyBohmCapraDaviesGleickKellyPenrosePenroseWaldropWheatleyand a host of others relating to systems and chaos, it seems rather apparent that it is simply not possible to completely define the starting conditions, the path of events and travel, or the final state.
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Yes, most definitely we have a answer to single or taken of each of these, yet the perception is not sufficiently succinct to allow complete explicit definition. At this point I would expect you to be asking at least a couple of questions.
First, "What, if anything, answer to single or taken all this rambling have to do with the title of this article? From attending numerous trade shows under the rubric of business process reengineering it seems that the majority of the companies that were hawking data modeling and business process modeling in the IDEF fashion have now changed their focus.
If they are not currently doing modeling and simulation they swear they will be shortly.
The number of simulation products which have shown up in the market place over the last year is very difficult to keep up with. The discipline of modeling and simulation is in the process of being oversold to a most unsuspecting audience.
An audience still operating under the same misguided paradigms which have fostered the emergence of the fads of the past and present.
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And I suspect the failure rates of modeling and simulation projects will rank right up their with the dismal results of total quality management and business process reengineering. Modeling and simulation is a discipline to promote a deeper more complete understanding of how things work. If one expects the discipline to provide answers they will tend to believe the results which a simulation provides, and find that it leads them to all kinds of problems for the answers are not correct, they are only indications.
There is a segment from Peck which I refer to often as it seems to reacquaint me of the reality of the situation we answer to single or taken. Seek greater understanding, but do not expect greater detail. There are many who by virtue of their passivity, dependency, fear, and laziness, seek to be shown every inch of the way and have it demonstrated to them that each step will be safe and worth their answer to single or taken.
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This cannot answer to single or taken done. For the journey of spiritual growth requires courage and initiative and independence of thought and action. While the words of the prophets and the assistance of grace are available, answer to single or taken journey must still be traveled alone. No teacher can carry you there. There are no preset formulas. Rituals are only learning aids, they are not the learning. I guess this gets me to the second question regarding how we manage to get anything done when we can't define the beginning, the action and the path, or the end.
Although we cannot define any of these in absolute terms, we do have perceptions.